Pictured Above: Delegates to the 2025 International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) visited the Nuevos Cultivos Agrarios pistachio orchards near Mallorca. (Of interest is the lack of cover crops between the growing trees. Ed)
After attending the 2025 International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) Congress, one thing is clear: the global macadamia industry is not in crisis, but it is at a juncture.
South Africa, the world’s leading producer, must embrace strategic change if we’re going to maintain our edge.
More than 1 500 professionals from 73 countries gathered at the Congress to exchange ideas, share research, and reflect on the trajectory of the global nut sector. The takeaway? Tree nut markets are under pressure.
End of the hype but not the opportunity
There was a time, not so long ago, when macadamia farming was considered one of the “sexiest” investments in agriculture. Strong margins, booming demand, and health-forward positioning made it a golden crop. But like any maturing industry, the entire macadamia value chain – farmers, processors, and marketers – must now adapt and evolve.
Let’s be clear: macadamias still offer exceptional long-term potential. They tick every box – clean label, healthy fats, indulgent flavour, plant-based appeal. The product itself is not the issue. The world still wants macadamias. What we’re seeing is an industry transitioning from rapid growth to more sustainable maturity.
The dramatic price collapse in 2022, driven largely by panic selling, was a wake-up call. But the rebound in 2023 proved that demand is alive and well. In fact, the South African industry managed to sell not only the full 2024 crop but also the carryover stock from 2023, despite record global production.
This confirms that the fundamentals are still strong. But for the industry to thrive, it’s not just about smarter farming. Processors and marketers also need to be more strategic, agile, and aligned. We must work more cohesively across the value chain to meet today’s challenges and unlock tomorrow’s growth.
This industry is evolving, due to changing market dynamics. We’ve had our wake-up call. Now it’s time for everyone, from orchard to export terminal, to be smarter, leaner, and more strategic.
: Delegates at the 2025 International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) Congress mingle after a day of detailed discussions and presentations on the various sectors under the auspices of the council.
The demand tug-of-war
The current challenge is twofold. First, middle-class consumers – the engine of nut consumption – are under pressure globally. Inflation, debt, and reduced discretionary income have made them more price sensitive. They’re still buying snacks and healthy products, but they’re looking for better value.
Second, tariffs remain a significant hurdle. South African macadamias face 12% duties in China and 10% in the United States, two of our most critical markets. Meanwhile, Australia enjoys 0% tariffs in China and Korea and is negotiating similar access with India. They also benefit from a more favourable diplomatic relationship with the US.
South African producers are competing globally with a handicap. We have excellent farmers, strong yields, and some of the lowest production costs per kilogram in the world.
We have a product the world wants, but policy is getting in the way of our potential. If we want to grow the industry, we need to work together, not only to farm better but to market smarter and lobby harder for fairer access.
Consolidation call
One lesson that rang loud and clear at the Congress was the success of the pistachio industry. Pistachios are not currently under significant pressure.
Roughly 70% of global pistachios come from California, and one processor handles most of it. They’ve achieved scale, marketing power, and loyalty from their growers. Their processors work for the long-term good of the industry, something macadamias should replicate.
In South Africa alone, we have more than 40 processors and exporters competing against one another. It’s fragmented, inefficient, and undermines our ability to set or influence market trends. This level of competition often results in a race to the bottom: processors undercut one another to secure sales, which drives down market prices and erodes value across the board. On the procurement side, many over-promise to growers in a bid to secure raw material, leading to missed expectations and growing frustration on the farm. Growers must start choosing partners not just based on price, but on their commitment to delivering long-term value, transparency, and reliability.
The World Macadamia Organisation (WMO) is a step in the right direction, building cohesion, aligning global strategies, and providing a voice for the industry. But it will only succeed if we, the industry players, decide to make it work.
Farming smarter rather than harder
At Green Farms Nut Company, we’ve seen firsthand how a tough market makes you sharper.
From our operations to our growers, we’ve had to ask:
how do we do more with less?
The result? Greater efficiency, smarter decisions, more precise farming and investments that deliver. We’ve also doubled down on value-added innovation – our Shisa eco-briquettes, made from macadamia shell waste, were shortlisted for a sustainability award at this year’s Congress. It’s a small but symbolic example of how we’re moving toward circular, climate-smart models that support both planet and profit.
: Alex Whyte – Green Farms Nut Company Director – who attended the recent INC Congress in Spain and is calling for a more strategic approach for a sustainable domestic macadamia industry into the future
What’s next?
There is no surplus stock from the 2024 season, which gives us breathing room. Now we need to use it wisely. Global uncertainty remains, especially with inflation, trade politics, and fragmented supply chains. But one thing is certain: the industry is stronger and smarter than it was two years ago.
If we continue the course – demand discipline, push for fairer trade terms, consolidate where possible, and keep innovating – we’ll emerge from this period more resilient than ever.
Macadamias may not be the runaway gold rush they once were, but they’re still one of the best long-term bets in agriculture.
