South Africa’s macadamia farmers have produced a crop well above early industry predictions, raising concerns that 2027 prices will come under renewed pressure.
By Colleen Dardagan
Mac farmers urged to ‘vasbyt’ as crop growth pressures markets
South Africa’s macadamia farmers have produced a crop well above early industry predictions, raising concerns that 2027 will be marked by high levels of carryover stock and less than ideal consumer demand.
As marketing strategies to increase world consumer demand have yet to take hold, South Africa’s macadamia farmers have produced a bumper crop in 2026.
Earlier in the year the industry’s representative body, SAMAC, predicted a 93 000-ton crop, but some processors say the yield is now closer to 100 000 tons, which they describe as a “big jump” compared with
87 227 tons in 2024 and 81 139 tons in 2025.
The significant decrease in yield in 2025 was attributed to weather conditions, which negatively affected nut set, sizing and overall yields.
Alex Whyte from the Green Farms Nut Company said the global crop was up by 20%, meaning it was likely to result in surplus stock going into 2027. “The rapid growth in our domestic industry is difficult to manage now. We just need to get through the next four years and then I believe consumer demand will catch up,” he said.
However, South Africa’s production is still predicted to double by 2030, with a further 50% growth expected between then and 2035.
Marketing imperative
Amber Macs CEO Philip Moufarrige said if South Africa were to move its crop, it was imperative that marketing efforts were re-doubled in Europe. “Americans have gone off macadamias. Demand in the United States has dropped from 13 000 tons in 2019 to 5 000 tons last year. This is because most of their product is sourced in Kenya and the quality has not been good enough. China – our main customer – is a threat to our industry as it imports our nut-in-shell and processes it and exports the kernel to Europe. Germans consume more macadamia nuts than the whole of the rest of Europe combined. Germans know about macadamias so that is where we should focus our marketing efforts, as well as in neighbouring Poland and Spain.”
On potential in the UK market, Moufarrige said the British were much poorer since Brexit while previous strategies to capture the Indian market had benefitted Australian producers instead. “Strangely South Africa has a 33% tariff on macadamias imported into India. The Australian crop enjoys a zero tariff. We have been subsidising their market, they are smiling at us,” Moufarrige said.
James Tucker from T&T Agric on the KwaZulu-Natal South Coast said the yield from his 350ha under trees was up on last year and quality was good. However, the deteriorating price was worrying, although at R55 000 a ton, the crop was still “washing its own face”.
“Running costs are anything between R75 000 and
R95 000 a hectare. Even if we get R45 000 per ton for our crop we are making a profit of R80 000 a hectare.”
Tucker, who has the largest macadamia tree nursery in southern Africa, said input costs were a significant challenge. “We were really smacked earlier this year. First, the above inflation minimum wage increase – we have no control over that. Then we had a serious drought here and our Eskom bill more than doubled. In 2025, we switched on our pumps on September 17th and apart from a few days over Christmas, when we probably should have irrigated, we switched off our pumps on June 25th – compared with 2024/25 when we pumped for just three months.
“Then of course the fertiliser cost spiked by 30 to 40%, and the diesel price more than doubled. That has really impacted the delivery price to the factory.”
While the hotter than usual harvesting season had meant drying costs had dropped slightly, Tucker said cable theft in the region had become a real problem as two sub stations had blown, cutting supply to the Sezela sugar mill and causing power outages which had shut down nut drying and cooling systems to the tunnels housing young macadamia trees. “Now sugar mill workers are going on strike, which means we haven’t cut any sugar cane for three weeks.”
While Tucker agreed farming was never dull, he also predicted continued growth in the macadamia sector. “What we are seeing is the bigger macadamia farmers are still developing orchards but instead of planting 100ha in one go they are staggering their growth plans over five years. When you consider that it costs about R85 000 per hectare a year to maintain growing orchards and it will cost at least R140 000 a hectare to plant young trees, it is critical that farmers spread the risk and diversify their operations. Interestingly we are seeing significant demand for young litchi trees.”
Tucker said while he was now installing solar to assist with energy supply, he was also “very excited” about drone technology. “Imagine spraying our 350ha using drones. That would slash the cost of diesel and tractor maintenance significantly.”
Macadamia expert Butch Aylward believes the significant crop yield was signalling the predicted record drought in 2027. The significant strength of the rand had also affected returns, but he added that some farmers were still happy with revenue. “Our macadamia industry is the biggest in the world and very strong. I expect it to remain that way for a long time, but we must choose very carefully where we sell our crop,” he said.
